Setting targets from your own numbers

Most membership targets are picked rather than set. A round number sounds good, a figure someone else mentioned sticks in the mind, or last month's result plus a hopeful bump becomes the goal. Targets chosen that way tend to fail in one of two directions: too easy to push you, or so far out of reach that you stop looking at them by the second month.

The better starting point is your own data. Your history already tells you what normal looks like, what your best periods achieved and which inputs drive your results. A target built from those facts is one you can believe, explain and work toward.

Start with an honest baseline

A baseline is your typical recent performance. For each figure you want to target, such as new members, churn or recurring revenue:

1. Take the average of the last three to six months, rather than the last month alone, which may have been unusually good or bad.
2. Adjust for the time of year if your membership has a seasonal pattern. Compare with the same period last year, as described in seasonality in your membership numbers.
3. Note your best and worst months in that period and what caused them.

The baseline is what you should expect if you change nothing. Any target above it needs a reason.

Use your best periods as evidence

How much improvement is realistic? Your own best results are the most honest guide. If your churn has ranged between 4% and 6% over the last year, a target of 4.5% is ambitious but proven possible. A target of 2% has no support in anything you have seen.

Look at what was different in your best periods. Perhaps a new onboarding email was running, or you held a live event every week. If you can recreate those conditions deliberately, a target near your best becomes believable. If you cannot explain your best month, treat it as luck rather than a benchmark.

Build targets from the inputs up

An outcome target, such as 48 new members a month, is more useful when you can see exactly what would produce it. Break the outcome into the steps that lead to it.

Take a hypothetical online choir and vocal coaching membership run by a singer named Ezra. The figures are invented to illustrate. Over the last six months he has averaged:

• 5,000 visitors a month to his public pages
• 2% of visitors starting a free trial: 100 trials
• 40% of trials becoming paying members: 40 new members

His best month brought 55 new members. He wants to set a target around 48. His funnel shows two main ways to get there:

• Raise traffic to 6,000 visitors, keeping the other rates the same: 6,000 × 2% = 120 trials, and 120 × 40% = 48 members.
• Keep traffic at 5,000 and lift trial conversion to 48%: 100 trials × 48% = 48 members.

Now the target comes with a plan. Ezra judges that a series of public warm-up videos could realistically add 1,000 visitors a month, while lifting trial conversion by eight points would be a stretch. He chooses the traffic route, with a smaller conversion improvement as a bonus.

The same approach works for retention. Ezra has about 800 members and loses 5% a month, or 40 members. Reaching 4.5% means losing 36 a month instead, keeping 4 more members every month. Framed that way, the target is about keeping four people, which points directly to the members most at risk.

Set a range, not a single number

A single target turns every month into pass or fail. A range is more honest about uncertainty and more motivating:

• Floor: the result you expect even if the plan underdelivers, usually close to your baseline. For Ezra, 40 new members.
• Target: what the plan should achieve if it works as intended. For Ezra, 46.
• Stretch: what is possible if everything goes well, near your best past result. For Ezra, 52.

Falling below the floor is a signal to investigate. Landing between floor and target means the plan is partly working. Hitting the stretch means you may have found something worth doubling down on.

Pair outcome targets with input targets

You cannot directly control how many people join. You can control whether you publish the warm-up videos. For every outcome target, set one or two input targets that are fully in your hands, such as publishing two public videos a week or hosting one open rehearsal a month. These work like the early signals in leading and lagging indicators: if the inputs happen and the outcome still falls short, your assumptions need revisiting; if the inputs did not happen, you know why.

Review without moving the goalposts

Check progress monthly, but judge targets over a quarter, when there is enough data to separate a trend from noise. Resist raising or lowering a target mid-quarter because of one good or bad month. At the end of the quarter, write down what you learned, and use it when you set the next quarter's figures during quarterly planning.

Setting your next target

1. Choose one outcome to target, such as new members, churn or revenue.
2. Calculate your three-to-six-month baseline, adjusted for season.
3. Note your best result and what caused it.
4. Break the outcome into its steps and decide which step you will improve.
5. Set a floor, a target and a stretch.
6. Add one or two input targets you fully control, and review both monthly.